Berkshire Hataway Intrinsic Value

Usciti i dati del 2014 e la mitica lettera di Warren Buffett è tempo di aggiornare i numeri relativi all’approssimativo calcolo dell’intrinsic value di Berkshire Hataway.

Come ripetuto e spiegato più volte da Warren Buffett nelle ultime lettere, il modo migliore per provare a stimare l’intrinsic value di Berkshire Hataway è quello di utilizzare fondamentalmente 3 importantissimi valori numerici : Investimenti,utile operativo e float.

Ecco l’estratto dalla lettera 2010 che meglio descrive questa procedura :

Though Berkshire’s intrinsic value cannot be precisely calculated, two of its three key pillars can be
measured. Charlie and I rely heavily on these measurements when we make our own estimates of Berkshire’s
value.
The first component of value is our investments: stocks, bonds and cash equivalents. At yearend these
totaled $158 billion at market value.
Insurance float – money we temporarily hold in our insurance operations that does not belong to us –
funds $66 billion of our investments. This float is “free” as long as insurance underwriting breaks even, meaning
that the premiums we receive equal the losses and expenses we incur. Of course, underwriting results are volatile,
swinging erratically between profits and losses. Over our entire history, though, we’ve been significantly
profitable, and I also expect us to average breakeven results or better in the future. If we do that, all of our
investments – those funded both by float and by retained earnings – can be viewed as an element of value for
Berkshire shareholders.
Berkshire’s second component of value is earnings that come from sources other than investments and
insurance underwriting. These earnings are delivered by our 68 non-insurance companies, itemized on page 106.
In Berkshire’s early years, we focused on the investment side. During the past two decades, however, we’ve
increasingly emphasized the development of earnings from non-insurance businesses, a practice that will
continue.
The following tables illustrate this shift. In the first table, we present per-share investments at decade
intervals beginning in 1970, three years after we entered the insurance business. We exclude those investments
applicable to minority interests.
Yearend
Per-Share
Investments Period
Compounded Annual Increase
in Per-Share Investments
1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 66
1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 754…………… 1970-1980 27.5%
1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7,798………… 1980-1990 26.3%
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50,229………. 1990-2000 20.5%
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94,730 ……….2000-2010 6.6%

Though our compounded annual increase in per-share investments was a healthy 19.9% over the
40-year period, our rate of increase has slowed sharply as we have focused on using funds to buy operating

The payoff from this shift is shown in the following table, which illustrates how earnings of our
non-insurance businesses have increased, again on a per-share basis and after applicable minority interests.
Year
Per-Share
Pre-Tax Earnings Period
Compounded Annual Increase in
Per-Share Pre-Tax Earnings

1970 . . . . . . . . . . . . $ 2.87
1980 . . . . . . . . . . . . 19.01 …………1970-1980 20.8%
1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . 102.58………. 1980-1990 18.4%
2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . 918.66 ……….1990-2000 24.5%
2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . 5,926.04 …….2000-2010 20.5%


Andiamo quindi ad aggiornare i dati inserendo i valori freschi al 2014:

Float : 84.000.000.000

Per share investment: 140.123

Earning per share: 10.847

Come mixare ed utilizzare al meglio questi 3 ingredienti ? Qual’è la formula arcana da utilizzare?

Nessuno lo sa.

Io però vi linko cosa ne pensa Whitney Tilson con la sua analisi di Berkshire :

http://www.tilsonfunds.com/BRK.pdf

Un altro aspetto molto importante per valutare e seguire l’andamento di Berkshire Hataway è il patrimonio netto o meglio il  book value.

Ecco l’andamento del book value per share degli ultimi anni :

ANNO……BV/SHARE…..BUY BACK……….VAL.AZIONE+RAPPORTO P/BV

2004………55.824
2005………59.377
2006………70.281
2007………78.008
2008………70.530…………..(84.636)………….107.500……….(2)
2009………84.487………….(107.500)…………101.925……….(1.25)
2010…….. 95.453………….(114.543)…………122.384……….(1.33)
2011…….. 99.860………….(119.832)…………112.728……….(1.21)
2012……..114.214…………(137.056)…………131.147……….(1.19)
2013……..126.766…………(152.119)…………173.122……….(1.32)
2014……..146.186…………(175.423)…………220.000……….(1.5)

Berkshire Hataway ha dichiarato che riacquisterà massicciamente azioni proprie ad un prezzo non superiore del 20% rispetto al book value.

Questa soglia è al 31/12 ferma a 175.000 contro un prezzo di 220.000.

Al 28/02 il gap si sarà leggermente ristretto avendo Berkshire capitalizzato altri due mesi di utili.

Annunci

2 pensieri su “Berkshire Hataway Intrinsic Value

  1. Ciao tutto a posto !
    E’ un mese con pochi sussulti e poche novità !
    Ma il portafoglio continua a lavorare benissimo.. senza che io faccia granchè.
    Tra poco l’aggiornamento mensile.

    Mi piace

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